In an analysis of the US presidential election on 5 November 2024, UBS economist Pascal Zumbühl compares the most likely result scenarios. In US foreign policy, there will be greater uncertainty under Donald Trump than under Kamala Harris, he writes. Zumbühl highlights Trump's tariff wall: 60 per cent on Chinese imports and 10 per cent on imports from other countries, including Switzerland. Even tariffs imposed selectively and on a smaller scale would particularly affect countries with trade surpluses, he writes. In addition to China, these are mainly Mexico, Vietnam, Canada and, to some extent, Switzerland.

The US’s stringent industrial policy measures, with the Inflation Reduction Act, alongside the EU with its Green Deal, could place Switzerland at a competitive disadvantage, writes the analysis. According to Zumbühl, the country is acting with relative caution in this regard. Regardless of the outcome of the election, writes the analysis, Swiss companies with close business ties to the US and China will have to prepare for a tougher environment – particularly because there will be a more restrictive course towards China. Furthermore, for the first time from 2026, the US government will be authorised to negotiate drug prices. This will impact the formerly above-average profit margins of pharmaceutical companies, writes the analysis.

According to UBS, Trump's deregulation agenda could also provide positive impetus for Swiss companies operating in the US. However, he has repeatedly called for a weaker dollar. A devaluation against the Swiss franc would harm the Swiss export industry and benefit importers, writes the UBS analysis. Although Swiss exports react comparatively little to exchange rate fluctuations due to the focus on pharmaceuticals, these movements are nevertheless crucial for Swiss companies: around 90 per cent of listed companies generate their profits in foreign currencies.

At the Open-i conference in Zurich from 21 to 22 November, the new dialogue platform for the economy and the science sector will discuss the innovative strength of the export-oriented Swiss economy, which maintains close ties with the USA as its most important foreign trade partner. To strengthen Switzerland’s position as a leading location in the complex international environment, more than 1,000 leading minds from the fields of business and science will meet at Zurich Kongresshaus for Open-i. Open-i is organised by NZZ Connect, a branch of the NZZ based in Bern. Tickets are now available on the Open-i platform.

Author: ce/mm